Nebraska entertains No. 22 Michigan

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2012 - Lincoln, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Meeting for the first time in nearly 20 years, the 22nd-ranked Michigan Wolverines and Nebraska Cornhuskers square off in Lincoln tonight for a Big Ten Conference tussle at the Bob Devaney Sports Center.

Michigan has won six of the previous seven meetings in the all-time series, but this is its first visit to Lincoln since 1964 when the then top-ranked Wolverines dropped a 74-73 decision to the hometown Huskers. The teams last meeting overall was on December 28, 1992.

The Maize and Blue got off to a sensational start to the 2011-12 season, logging a 12-2 record before a 73-71 loss at Indiana on January 5 started the team on a run of mediocrity that has seen it go 5-5 in its last 10 games. Michigan is coming off Sunday's 64-54 loss at rival Michigan State, and while the Wolverines are a perfect 13-0 at home this season, they are a disappointing 2-6 in true road games. They have lost two straight in enemy territory, and five of their last six road bouts overall.

Nebraska's first foray into Big Ten play has proven to be even more challenging than coach Doc Sadler had anticipated, as the team is just 3-8 in conference, and an even 11-11 overall. The Cornhuskers dropped a 69-61 decision at home to Minnesota on Sunday, giving the squad an 8-6 record in Lincoln this year. Nebraska has lost two in a row and three of its last four games overall.

Michigan simply couldn't match Michigan State's shooting prowess in Sunday's key conference clash, as the Wolverines hit just 39.6 percent of their field goal attempts while the Spartans made good on 52.2 percent of their's. The visitors failed to compete on the glass as well, grabbing a mere 16 rebounds compared to 40 for the home team. Zack Novak hit three of UM's seven three- pointers en route to 14 points, while Jordan Morgan and Trey Burke chipped in with 11 points apiece. Tim Hardaway, Jr., who leads the team in scoring this season with 14.7 ppg, went a woeful 1-of-10 from the floor to finish with just four points. Burke is the only other double-digit scorer for the Wolverines at the moment, and in addition to his 14.1 ppg, he also serves as the unit's primary playmaker with 4.9 apg. As a team, Michigan is averaging 67.0 ppg while allowing 61.0 ppg. The team shoots a decent 45.7 percent from the field, but is virtually even in rebounding margin (+0.4), and is on the plus side in turnover differential (+1.8).

Bo Spencer scored 18 points to lead three Cornhuskers in double figures, but those efforts went for naught as the home team dropped an eight-point decision to Minnesota over the weekend. Toney McCray (15 points, six rebounds) and Brandon Richardson (10 points) made solid contributions, but Nebraska lost the rebounding battle (31-24) and allowed the Golden Gophers to connect on 54.0 percent of their field goal attempts, which included a 41.2 percent showing from three-point range (7-of-17). Minnesota controlled all aspects of the scoring line -- 40-24 in the paint, 23-16 off turnovers, 14-6 in second-chance points, 12-4 on the break, and a whopping 40-7 in bench points. Spencer and McCray continue to rank one-two on the team's scoring chart this season, netting 15.5 and 10.5 ppg, respectively. Spencer's figure would be even higher if he shot better than the 39.9 percent he is at the moment, although he is one of the top free-throw shooters in the country, checking in at 87.9 percent (80-of-91). Overall, the Cornhuskers are putting up just 62.2 ppg while permitting 64.4 ppg. The team is dead even in rebounding, and commits an average of 14 turnovers per outing.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com

In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.

Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.

Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.

Memphis vs. Ohio State

Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.

UCLA vs. Kansas

In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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